Equity/Commodity/Currency/IPO/Mutual Fund Broking Firm & Investment Advisory
India's #Coal Crisis - All Regions (North/South/East/West/North East) <5 days stock - 16 plants hand to mouth (no buffer at all) - Western Region Max generation capacity (60000MW) - Southern Region capacity 50% of Western Region - Most Common Factor: Lower supply from Coal India
Records being broken in 2021! - #CoalIndia dispatches never exceeded 1.6 MT/day in Aug of any previous year - Average Aug production never been higher than 1.25 MT/day during past 4 years - 104% materialisation in Aug last week (1.36 MT/day vs CEA requirement 1.31 MT/day) #coal
#Brazil worsening weather outlook to aid coffee prices - World’s largest producer & exporter of coffee - Brazil witnessing worst drought in a century - World's 2nd largest exporter of corn (used as livestock feed) - Brazil’s annual inflation hit 5-year high of 8.6% in July
#Pfizer dominating the Covid landscape - Shipped over 120cr does (and counting) - Expected sales of the shot to hit $34bn this year! - 95% of jabs so far in Japan are from Pfizer - PS: Pfizer tried to buy UK’s AstraZeneca in 2014!
Naphtha - Key to Petchem! - Heavy Naphtha: Aromatics (Xylene, Benzene) - Light Naphtha: Ethylene & Propylene Derivatives - HDPE/LDPE/PolyPropylene: Packaging Industry - MEG/DEG: Solvents - PTA/MEG: Textile Industry - Reliance Ind: #1 producer of both PTA/MEG in India!
Indian Pellet Industry - JSW Steel & Arcelor Mittal among top producers - BRPL, Jindal Steel, KIOCL among top exporters - 83% of total exports were towards China in CY20 - But for Logistics constraints (rake availability), exports would have been higher
- Next Bid Received: ArcelorMittal Rs 4800cr (in Sep 2019) - Lenders reject ArcelorMittal's bid ("failed to meet lender expectations") - Adani Power enters fray (Mar 21)and no surprises emerges as winner - NCLT issues order on 17 Jun 21 in Adani's favour (for Rs 2700cr)
Indian Lenders - What are you upto? - Essar Power Mahan Power 1200MW Project in MP - Goes into NCLT in Sep 2018 with Rs 5330 total banks exposure - Lenders: ICICI Bank (Lead 1370cr), PFC, REC, PNB, IDFC (500cr+ each) - Initial Bid Received: Essar (the defaulter itself) Rs 3500cr
Comparison of different pipes - Traditional piping (iron, steel, concrete) slowly phasing out - Plastic Pipes growth to be driven by HDPE & CPVC pipes - Potential Applications: Plumbing, Insulation, Agriculture, Sewerage - Key Players: Supreme Ind 11%, Ashirvad 10%, Finolex 9%
Industry Overview (Tiles & Quartz) - Tiles Market is 35x that of Quartz Slabs - Tiles (Listed Cos) Share: Kajaria 28%, Prism 17%, Somany 15% - Quartz (Listed Cos): Pokarna 63%, Asian Granito 36%
Footwear on a roll (even during COVID) - Relaxo has sold the highest pairs in over 5 years during FY21 - India is 2nd largest footwear producer globally after China (9% share) - India exports only 10% of the footwear produced - India’s share in global exports is just 2%!
US loves Indian Home Textiles - US Cotton (Pillowcase+Sheet+Tower) Market Size $2.9bn - Upcoming opportunity: Floor Covering + Cotton Bedspreads worth $3.3bn - India constitutes 43% of Bath Linen, 48% of Bed Linen US demand - Welspun Vision: Leader in Indian home textile by 2023
Global Soda Ash Industry - China accounts for 45% of total capacity - Flat glass sector leading demand recovery (focus on Solar Glass) - US Cos to enjoy cost reduction of $8/MT in 2021 (lower royalty) - Domestic Market Share: Nirma 27%, GHCL 25%, Tata Chem 20%
Classic Example of Loyalty (MHRIL) - Fully paid members exceed 80% with lowest fraction on EMI plans - Room addition grew at fastest rate (crossed 4000 mark in FY21) - Added 9 resorts across India (highest ever in single year) - Co clocked 85% occupancy across 3 months of Q4FY21
Govt Business with Private Banks - ICICI Bank has widest existing bouqet in terms of agencies - Kotak/Indusind/YES were at par (before Kotak got Army) - Lifting of embargo by Govt of India would aid Pvt Banks (CASA) - No one yet lucky with Railways (everything routed via SBI)
IDFC First Bank launches Credit Card - Dynamic Interest Rate (9% to 36% APR) - No charges for over spends upto 10% - Bank will remind customers on going over limit - Lifetime Free (No annual fees) - Interest-free cash withdrawal (next billing cycle or 48 days)
Adani Green Energy - 20% of total capacity operational as on date - 75% of portfolio is solar, 14% wind-solar hybrid - 78% of capacity under implementation in 2 states only - 78% of total capacity sovereign counterparty, 15% State DISCOMs @darshanvmehta1 @_soniashenoy
Interesting Titbits about Indian Defence Sector - Russia has been major supplier over past decade - Aircrafts dominate imports (equipment wise) - Expected opportunity (Airforce/Navy/Army) Rs 7-8 lakhcr over 7-8 yrs - Cos: BEL & HAL primarily (high R&D spend as % of sales)
Important week for #Pfizer & #Moderna - USFDA review of (1) Pfizer 10th Dec (2) Moderna 17 Dec - Both are mRNA type (no prior vaccine on this platform) - Doses Preorder Pfizer: EU 30cr, US 10cr, Japan 12cr, UK 3cr Moderna: EU 8cr, US 10cr, Japan 5cr @CNBCTV18Live @ZeeBusiness
Top Gainers (Chemicals/Petrochemicals) - ABS prices have risen the most (BEPL/Ineos top cos) - HIPS/GPPS prices steady (Suppetro major gainer) - PVC prices shot up last month (Reliance major gainer) - HDPE/LDPE price gain -> Reliance gainer again! @darshanvmehta1 @AnilSinghvi_