President, IndusInd International Holdings Limited (IIHL), Hinduja Group. Commercial & Investment banker and Asset & Wealth manager. passion for Global markets
#Nifty failure above 12K & resilience below 11825 is good to keep rest of week sideways mode at 11650-12000, and so is #banknifty failure above 24650 (t/p urge for 4000 points chase from 20400-20750), while resilience at 24000-24200 retain pull bias momentum towards 25200-25350
Best outlook ahead of US Presidential event risk & end of 2020 is for #Nifty holding play at 11850/12000-12350/12500 (push-back from new high above 12430), while #banknifty lift focus range at 23850/24200-26000/26350 (getting closer to all-time high 32613)
No surprise to see #Nifty back at upper corridor of big picture 10500/10800-12000/12300 for 2nd attempt survival against urge for portfolio-light and so is #banknifty 2nd time at 24650-25350 from base 19000-20500; good, but stay with risk-reward prudence and trail stop caution!
#Nifty at upper-half play of 11650-12000 is good to retain hope for last-mile push into 12000-12350 while #banknifty retaining steam post upside break at 22800/23000-24000/24200 pulls 24650/25200-25350 into striking distance! Good to remain in play with higher trail stop!
So, #banknifty got the upside break at 22800/23000-24000/24200 pulling away from base 20400-20750 & looking good for 25150-25500! Will there be new triggers shifting focus from 16000-25000 to 23000-32000? As said, banking sector can’t stay aside when economy set for turnaround!
#banknifty is positioning for great FY22 resolving issues around capital & profitability before credit demand picks up for productivity expansion; base is up at 20500-22000 for consolidation at 22650/23000-25150/25500 preparing for medium term outlook for 24000/24350-32150/32500
India #Nifty big picture focus at 11300-12300 (upper half of tolerance range 10300-12300) is best outlook and short term outlook at intermediate zone 11500/11650-12000/12150 is reflection of confidence of 15-20% growth in FY22, bouncing back from FY21 GDP contraction of ~10%
Didn’t you see lack of FPI appetite on India Gilts post shift of positive spread between Repo rate & CPI to negative between mid 2019 & now? Foreign investors chase value (on equities) and positive spread (on debt) when taking currency risk!
All combined, it’s good to give time for @FinMinIndia and @RBI till end of FY22 to restore top-line GDP of FY20, and better to establish FY22 growth rate at 10-20% making up more than FY21 contraction of 10% (capacity/output increase from 90 to 110 at 20% is the agenda for FY22)
Yes, he set the formula of Repo rate = CPI + 1-1.25%; now it’s 3.35 = 7 - 3.65% (hugely negative), shift from +1.35% in early 2019 - loss of ~5% for the savers! Great for borrowers, but zero impact on output, employment or economic & social prosperity! Great efforts, zero result!
Interesting discussion early Sunday morning! 😊 Interest rate management by Government & Central Bank is balancing act between growth & employment (output & consumption) and inflation & saving (attracting investments - direct or indirect)! Get biased in extraordinary times!
Can $1 Billion PAT per quarter take @HDFC_Bank stock over 1272-1305 (2019 close - 2020 high)? This is also positive for #banknifty at 22800-24200/25200, making it good for capital raising for sustainability & growth! @RBI and Aditya Puri on rescue mission!
#banknifty intra-week play at 23000-24200 is best to look for post spike from 20400-20750 & weekly close below 23850 is sentiment neutral at 22000/22350-24000/24350; worry also from @RBI extraordinary measures not yielding desired results on Gilt yields (trigger for 20400-24200)
#Nifty giving up 11800-12300 (post pleasant surprise upside break at 10800-11800) with weekly close below 11800-11915 is sentiment negative cutting the buy-dips undertone at 11500/11650-12000; good to stay portfolio light at 12000-12300/12430 ahead of US Presidential event risk
#Nifty end of week resilience above 11650 is good despite failure over 12K and so is #banknifty above 23K post push-back from 24200, while @RBI concerned on 10Y bond 5.77% 2030 weakness at 5.875-5.925% despite running the extra mile and USD/INR sideways at 73.15-73.50 is fine
#Nifty got pushed down into previous resist zone 11650-11800 from portfolio-light pressure ~12K while #banknifty hold on to back & forth undertone at 23000/23200-24000/24200; it’s last-mile play at 11500-12000/12300 (22000-24200/25200) b4 turning south!
#banknifty completes profit-booking correction at 23000/23200-24000/24200 with close at 23875 while #nifty held back & forth at 11800-12000 with firm close at 11971; no worry, while above 11800 (23000) and risk of reversal only below 11500 (22000); good for 12300 (25000)
It’s definitely not a duration play when beyond 1 year dynamics (on headline inflation and spread between Repo & CPI) is not clear, and also not yield-play if source of funding is time deposits of 1Y & above which is over 6%! It’s complex (investing) decision beyond short term!
It’s fine with #Nifty sideways momentum at 11850-12000 and #banknifty struggle for resilience below 23650 (of 23000-24200/24350); sentiment positive for rest of 2020 big picture lift at 11500/11650-12300/12450 (22650/23000-25150/25500) with undertone shift to buy-on-dips!
While #banknifty gets into mark-time mode at 23000/23350-24000/24350, #WhatNext probability stay biased for 24000-26500 in extension of bounce back momentum from 19500/20750-22000 with strategic base lift from 20400-20750 to 22350-22700; no major reversal risk in sight!